The Storm Clouds are brewing…

Let’s get a few things out of the way, I’m not one of ‘those’ chasers. I haven’t been chasing for 30 years, I can’t remember many days where I didn’t see another chaser on the road all day much less all season. However, I have been at this for almost a decade now and in that short time span chasing has gone from ‘nerd activity’ which you are looked at funny for to ‘extreme sport’ where everyone wants to join in.

And they have.

Now in the year 2010, Storm Chasing has become something that almost everyone thinks they can do — because they can — and now we are on the cusp of some kind of major pushback from people who our traffic and actions are effecting the most. And I can’t help but look around and see a lot of finger pointing going on.

“You TIV guys are so reckless!”

“Vortex II has added so many people to the roads!”

“These local yokels are following me everywhere nowadays!”

Stop, deep breath. Now look in the mirror. Yes, look at that guy/gal staring back at you. Guess what? You have to assign blame there first before you move on. Chasing has exploded in popularity because it’s now both easy and seemingly a quick way to get ‘famous.’ But also because people like you and me have made it that way.

There are a lot of people who are ‘chasers’ who probably couldn’t forecast with just a surface map and a few upper charts and soundings for the day: and that’s ok! But it also means that they are getting their info in other places — and thus they are likely using OUR forecasts to get them there (yes I’m guilty of posting forecasts too!).

That’s not the only problem — at least here in Oklahoma — everyone believes they too, can storm chase. So if a storm is near a population center of some kind, many locals will be out gawking at the storm because they can. I am certain hordes of video from chasers over the years getting close has led to this phenomenon of people no longer being scared of tornadoes like they used to be.

Politically, the end result here is simple: we are in trouble in Oklahoma. While many chasers profess about their ‘right’ to drive near a storm I just want to remind you there is no such guaranteed right anywhere in the Constitution of either the USA or Oklahoma! If anything, you should look at your ability to drive without hindrance near a dangerous storm in what people being directly effected would call an emergency situation a major privilege since it’s not allow in most other instances of dangerous weather/natural disasters.

The media has turned on the ‘amateur chasers’ and the public blowback is now beginning as well (reference several pictures posted by OKC meteorologists and the user comments on Facebook for proof of this). That means both Billy Bob Tour Operator and I’ve been chasing for 10 years Sanner are now quickly becoming public enemy #1 in Oklahoma. Politically speaking, that’s not a great spot to be.

Many chasers have thrown the ‘We are out there to warn the public’ delusion to people. But in Oklahoma: You aren’t helping the warning process 95% of days. TV Meteorologists, TV Chasers, and local networks of spotters make sure there are dozens of eyes on a storm in Oklahoma before WE ever show up. We are not only not needed, we are most likely hindering the efforts of these people who can directly warn the people in their local towns and viewing areas much faster than us!

And then there are the people who are now under the delusion streaming saves lives — I know it’s a popular thing to try to feel better about yourself and make it seem as if you are saving lives. But again, in Oklahoma — people are going to watch Gary England, Mike Morgan, and Rick Mitchell LOOOOOONNNNG before they watch Joe Chaser Streamer. You aren’t saving lives in Oklahoma. Agnus Winfield of rural Washita County will watch Gary England long before she watches you. While the NWS Mets won’t admit it, they have enough people out there in Oklahoma as is to provide info before hundreds of chasers are out there ‘warning the public’ (which they aren’t anyways, it’s just a nice crutch to stand on top of to feel better about oneself).

There is a saying that everyone views their worth as a bit higher than what it really is. In the community of storm chasers (a very weird place mind you), a vast majority believes it is their right to drive near severe weather and that they are providing a valuable warning service to the public. Neither is remotely true, and that is why the big crackdown is coming upon chasers is sooner than most think.

The end result is that there WILL be legislation of some kind that will give LEOs more power in severe weather to control the situation — and trust me, I know that this is 100% being worked on right now by legislators in Oklahoma. An OHP trooper on 5/19 proved they can easily control the situation with a tornadic storm bearing down on them. It is easily accomplished, much to the chagrin of chasers who say such a law is not easily enforced. Politically speaking, this is a slam dunk with both the media and public now not on the side of the ‘amateur chasers’ who are causing a big mess out there (I just spoke about all of us again!).

So get ready: Chasing in Oklahoma will be a lot more difficult going forward. LEOs will likely start barricading roads off as they spot to ensure the safety of their local citizens, especially when backed up with a few lines of legislative power that gives them the ability to do so.

And when it happens, look in the mirror. Until you can blame yourself for being a part of the escalation, you cannot seek to blame others. It is through each of us that chasing has expanded how it has, and thus, why the big storm is coming for us. I hope everyone is ready.

Recapping this past week…looking ahead to another busy one.

Lowered area with very slight rotation NW of OKC today before it dumped massive hail in the metro. Also the first of three supercells on the day.

Right now still trying to clear the chase lag so to speak…have a ton of video that needs to be posted on YouTube from 4 days this past week. Each day saw a tornadic supercell and some great sights. Saw 3 tornadoes total this past week, and am looking ahead towards this next week with a very optimistic eye. We saw everything from a tornado outbreak to several classic dryline tornado days in Oklahoma. Had we gone to SW Texas it is likely we would have saw tornadic storms each day this past week, but we opted to stay home for some R&R with the extendeds looking good.

As for today, it was a gigantic win. Saw three very photogenic supercells, got some amazing video that will be jaw dropping when timelapsed. I can’t wait to show it off. It might be several days before I can get stuff up on YouTube though.

I don’t want to go into too much detail about the next week in this post but a brief look at everything shows the next seven days to be extraordinarily active. There are multiple days I could see being big tornado days with Wednesday holding definite outbreak potential. I’ll try to keep the blog updated as we go through what is sure to be a massively busy week.

Tornado near Clinton, OK just at Sunset last Wednesday. The funnel is in the top center of the screen with a debris cloud below it, not as evident on stills.

More Severe Weather in Oklahoma Today?

While not as potent as yesterday, a conditional threat for severe weather definitely exists across Oklahoma today, especially areas west of I-35.  However, a warm layer of air aloft (or a cap) will help to limit storm coverage today. Let’s get into the details shall we?

12z OUN Sounding

The upper-air sounding from Norman this morning shows an EML centered at around 850mb. The sounding indicates a convective temperature of 103F today, which would indicate storms are not going to happen since the high near the dryline today will be in the low to mid 90s. However, processes along the dryline, an upper air disturbance, and convergence will help make storm initiation possible to even likely this afternoon. If any storms form, it will be late in the afternoon and they will move relatively slowly (less than 30mph) to the Northeast.

SREF Sfc boundary forecast

The SREF shows the dryline extending down the OK/TX border to the west and a warm front along the OK/Kansas border to the North. This model is an ensemble product, which basically means it’s a bunch of model solutions combined into one. Regardless, this model shows the whole body of Oklahoma will be in the warm sector today, with storm initiation most likely along the boundaries. However, as stated before, storm coverage will be rather small. A small and subtle over air disturbance should help initiate a few storms, and they will likely be rather severe.

EHI Values over Oklahoma as progged by the RUC

The RUC (Rapid Update Cycle model) shows a very violatile environment across Oklahoma, especially along the warm front to the North if storms do form. Shear is sufficient for Supercells and the instability should be rather extreme. So if storms are able to form, giant hail, tornadoes and damaging winds are all likely with any storm. Today is not an outbreak day, at least it doesn’t appear to be at this point in the morning. However, it is a day where if a storm were to impact an area, it would be quite severe and capable of damage to lives and property.

Will be leaving in the afternoon for points west, will be playing around the boundaries later on today.

Posted in: Chase Forecasts by Chris Sanner 1 Comment , , ,

High Impact Tornado Outbreak becoming increasingly likely today….

EHI Values, off the charts, in Oklahoma today.

If you have been living under a rock: this post is for you. All of the necessary ingredients seem to be coming together for a high impact tornado outbreak across the state of Oklahoma today. Discrete Supercells along with attendant threats of giant hail, strong/violent tornadoes, and very damaging winds appear likely to impact at least the Northern 1/2 of Oklahoma. However, the threat is pretty even all the way up and down and if the trends this morning are actually realized, this day will likely go down as one of the more violent outbreaks in the state’s history.

There is one fly in the ointment: veering surface winds. If the SFC winds do veer  (become more westerly), the tornado threat will be significantly less than currently anticipated. However, if winds across the state back (become more easterly with time) then a tornado outbreak from border to border appears likely. This is something you do not play around with. Be thinking RIGHT NOW what you would do if a mile wide violent tornado was bearing down on you. This is a day where being underground is the only option to ensure safety. So be thinking ahead to ensure you have a safety plan in place. This is one of the more potent setups I can remember. Stay safe everyone!

Posted in: Chase Forecasts by Chris Sanner No Comments , ,

Severe WX Episode still looks likely…but with caveats

Chasers are enthralled with the setup Monday, and for good reason — it looks impressive. However, there are serious concerns chasing wise that may lead many towards a very frustrating day. Fast storm motions and bad terrain will mix to create what can be best described as a chasing nightmare. If the dryline sets up as progged, storms will move out of the most chaseable terrain in Oklahoma and into a mixture of hills and trees with much more limited road options (and in Kansas, storms will quickly move into the Flint Hills).

Sfc boundaries and instability at 0z Tuesday

The NAM has come into better agreement today with the GFS in regards to sfc boundary positions, and it’s a worst case scenario. The dryline will run roughly from Lawton – El Reno – Blackwell on Monday afternoon. Storms that fire off of it will quickly become severe and tornadic, but they will also quickly move into horrible chase terrain. For chaseability purposes, chasers had better start praying the dryline is much slower than progged. Many chasers will find themselves looking at the backside of storms all day — especially those who are still relatively inexperienced.

EHI Values over OK at 0z Tuesday

It goes without saying that the setup is incredible. Long-track strong and/or maybe even a violent tornadoes are possible across the Sooner State and into SE Kansas. People living roughly east of Highway 81 should be on high alert on Monday afternoon. Given the setup and storm motions, a tornado on the ground for 10 minutes will travel almost 6 miles! So any tornado that can sustain itself for a long period of time is apt to be long track. If the dryline slows down by 50 – 75 miles, this is an absolute winner of a chase day — and that’s not out of the question. I won’t be surprised to see the dryline at highway 183 Monday nor would I be surprised if it’s east of I-35.

SFC Boundaries/instability for 0z Wednesday

The best chase days of the week  at the end of the week will probably have been either Tuesday or Wednesday. For Tuesday, a stalled front will meet the dryline somewhere between Lawton and El Reno. Supercells will likely form along the triple point and just south, and will be capable of producing all modes of severe — but with much slower storm motions. This is a definite chase day.

SFC Boundaries and instability at 0z Thursday

SFC Boundaries and instability at 0z Thursday

Wednesday looks pretty decent as well, especially if storms get more of an eastery movement component to them. Numerous to scattered supercells will develop over the warm sector and all modes of severe will again be possible — with again manageable storm motions.

So the key here? Pay attention to your local weather offices and media outlets if you aren’t a chaser because the next 3 days should be extremely active. For chasers: pack your rocket boosters and machetes for Monday’s jungle chasing if the models verify.  I feel very strongly that while Monday may produce the headlines, the best chasing will be on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Also, everyone had better enjoy this week, because if the last few runs of the GFS (and ensembles) are any indication, things get a bit ridgy by late week — a pattern which could limit severe weather potential for at least a couple of weeks after this, thus continuing the 2010 pattern of a few chase days and then a 1 – 2 week break afterwards.

Posted in: Chase Forecasts by Chris Sanner 1 Comment , , , ,

Significant severe weather episode likely this week…

It looks as if things are coming together for a significant episode of severe weather across the Southern Plains during the first half of this week. Monday – Wednesday all represent chase days with each posing significant risks of all modes severe, including strong tornadoes.

Instability forecast for 0z Tuesday

First of is Monday, which looks to be very active across the Southern Plains. Strong instability will develop coincident with strong wind shear to produce an environment very favorable for Supercell Thunderstorms and the attendant risk for very large damaging hail and strong tornadoes. There are some caveats though, and they do bear mentioning.

CINH at 0z Tuesday

There will be likely strong CINH present along the dryline which will need to be removed via a variety of sources, from a shortwave, to daytime mixing and stronger forcing along the dryline.

LCLs at 0z Tuesday

LCLs will be marginally high as well, as the forecast LCLs underdo the likely result since models are both underforecasting high temperatures and overforeasting dewpoints by a bit. However, LCLs will significantly lower as night approaches, making long track strong tornadoes a distinct possibility with any sustained discrete supercell that is ongoing.

EHI values at 0z Tuesday, off the charts...almost.

EHI values (what I like to use to combine the shear and instability into an easy one-stop shop) are very strong and resemble many past violent tornado cases. I’m sure the SARs sounding parallels will be quite breathtaking by 0z. All in all, Monday could go down as a significant weather day in a historical sense if the values being shown by weather models are realized. Details will change, so stay tuned.

Surface instability 0z Wednesday....

Moving on to Tuesday, you see a very violatile picture once again over portions of Oklahoma and North Texas. Extreme instability alongside moderate shear and low LCLs will combine to be a second day of extreme weather across the S. Plains. Although this day isn’t being talked about by many, I think the ingredients are there for a day that could rival Monday in terms of high impact weather over very similar locations. Now for a pair of soundings from both days:

Sounding for Lawton, OK at 0z Tuesday...loaded gun.

And now one for Tuesday:

Sounding from Chickasha, OK for 0z Wednesday...loaded gun x 2

Hopefully we can keep these things out of towns and away from property. However, it is the unfortunate reality that if  these days occur as forecast, property and lives will be in danger. So stay tuned to local weather outlets for the latest information.

May 6, 2010 Chase Updates

5:30pm — this will likely be my last update since my iPad isnt charging with my car charger and its down to 18% battery. We are sitting near Marion, ks watching some nice tcu attempt to break the cap. Im thinking near 0z we should get at least one storm to go out here. Hoping it is to our west because we might have trouble getting east. Ill try to post a quick results update on the way home. Peace out peeps!!!

2:30pm — now in Wichita heading north. Ruc is consistenly breaking out precip as are a couple of other models along the warm front. Both ict and top are mentioning in late afternoon initiation…although that dissent change the game plan at all it does make one feel better. Mesoanalysis and satellite both hinting at a shortwave moving in later on too. Another thing which is making this day even more interesting is the stock market diving nearly 1000 points earlier…that was rather scary as I watched i dive whilst in the middle of nowhere. Oh, got some cu forming now overhead as well…a sign better moisture is arriving. Another update soon.

1:00pm — Passing through Perry on our way up north into central Kansas. Still thinking initiation will hold off until 6ish at the earliest…wouldnt be shocked to have initiation hold off until after dark. But I also wont be shocked if something goes up in the afternoon along the wf/tp. Will have another update soon-ish.

10:30am — Morning runs havent changed my mind much on todays setup. Initiation and moisture are still the two main concerns today. However, 60s tds will almost certainly be in place this afternoon along the warm front with a breakable cap by late afternoon. I think we might need some upper support of some kind to put this day over the top initiation wise, but overall I feel decent about daytime initiation. Will be hitting the road by noon for somewhere in central-ish Kansas.

Time to play in Kansas….

Lots of things to discuss with tonights forecast from moisture quality concerns to capping concerns. We’ll get to them all I promise.

Surface map as of tonight....

Tonight’s surface map shows a best case scenario unfolding, with high 50s to low 60s dewpoints common throughout N. Texas and the SE 1/2 of Oklahoma. Given doubts about moisture quality for tomorrow, this is a very positive sign since the fear has been 60s dewpoints weren’t going to be able to work their way up to the target area in time. I feel that we should be ok in terms of moisture. I don’t know if we’ll see 65+ TDs, that might be going a bit far…but I think 60s are definitely likely.

Instability forecast from GFS....

The general setup is good. Surface-based instability should be AoA 2000 j/kg with plenty of shear, especially along the retreating warm front. Winds are locally backed here and combined with the enhanced  baroclinity along the boundary along with adequately low-ish LCLs, should result in a pretty decent tornado threat if a storm can form. The shear itself is highly conducive towards Supercell storms.

Convective inhibition

Convective inhibition at 0z Friday...the 'warmer' colors are weaker inhibition.

Inhibition could prevent thunderstorm development altogether. Although we will reach the magical -50 mark on CINH by late afternoon into early evening which could allow for some isolated development. This might end up being a case where additional upper air support will either make or break the chase. Storm initiation chances are moderately good all things considered, just there are a lot of things which could go either way for tomorrow so I wouldn’t be surprised by any result at this point from tomorrow’s chase.

LCL Map for 0z Friday

All in all, looks like a solid chase day tomorrow. Nothing looks guaranteed, and with Vortex II in the area, I’m hoping for a bit more than isolated development because Vortex II + Hordes of Chasecationers/Chasers might just turn into a giant circus. However, I have always liked circuses, so maybe this one will be somewhat entertaining — probably not.  Either way, we’re planning on heading out tomorrow at 11 am-ish for points in Kansas…not sure on the exact target tonight for sure. Lots of things to resolve.

Either way, this day is just a primer for what could be a significant severe episode early next week much closer to home. Stay tuned for details on that.

Extended downtime ongoing….

Well it’s May 2.

I wish I could say the season is getting really busy and we’re going to have some crazy days ahead of us, given we’re in the climatological peak here on the Southern Plains. However, it looks as if Spring’s onset has been delayed somewhat still, with only spotty setups up to this point on the plains to chase.

That pattern won’t change this week, with dry and zonal flow persisting across the middle of the country this week. I know a lot of people are out here on their chasecations and whatnot, not to mention Vortex II being stuck with nothing to do for the second year in a row. However, some year’s are hard luck years until they aren’t or until they’re finished. Looking too far into the future with schizophrenic weather models is a laughable task, so I’m not going to try to speculate right now what anything past the next 7 days looks like.

Hopefully the pattern turns around by May 15 since that is the date I plan to start getting the bulk of the shooting for the film in. However, for now….on May 2, I’m very confident no chasing is happening until after May 10. So we will wait.

Posted in: Chase Forecasts, Low on Gas by Chris Sanner No Comments

Tough chase day this week…

Convective inhibition as per the 12z NAM at 0z Thursday

Thursday is going to be a tough day for storm chasers for a variety of reasons. However, when you see shear profiles as insane as they are for Thursday, you take notice. But insane shear itself doesn’t lead to violent weather. There are plenty of problems with the setup which I’m worried about.

12z GFS CINH forecast

First off, the 700 temps are pretty high across the target area as depicted by both the NAM and GFS. They aren’t so high that initiation isn’t possible, but they are high enough that sustaining updrafts will require some atmospheric lift. If there is none, storms will have a hard time sustaining themselves.

LCL forecast from 12z NAM

Another problem with Thursday are the large temperature/dewpoint depressions leading to rather high cloud bases. Higher cloud bases tend to mitigate the tornado potential. However, there would be a chance of at least isolated tornadoes through sunset given a storm. If surface moisture was actually higher than forecast, I would be concerned about the potential for a particularly major day across the area.

Forecast sounding for W. Oklahoma on Thursday evening.

What I am concerned about is the period just after sunset, if storms were able to form during the afternoon. If a storm is able to stay surface based through the evening, shear profiles get absolutely insane with relatively low LCLs. If this were to verify with moderate instability present, strong tornadoes would be very possible. However, I’m entirely unconvinced if initiation will be able to occur.

700 winds forecast for Thursday.

The main problem from a chasers perspective is that the wind field is actually TOO strong. When you get atmospheric wind speeds as they are forecast for Thursday, storm motions will be relatively rapid. With storm motions possibly approaching 50, chasing will be incredibly difficult for any but the most skilled chasers. Even still, photography chances won’t be that good. Thus, despite what appears at first glance to be an incredible setup is actually anything but for chasers. Even if things look more potent as the setup approaches in regards to moisture and lift, I won’t be able to get the fact storms will be moving almost too fast out of my mind.

More updates on this potentially potent setup coming in the next few days.